Other engagements are preventing me from keeping this up to date. I will endeavour to carry on this work in a few weeks time, please check back then.

Contract: British Pound Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 0.6%
Expected: 0.2%
Actual: 0.3%

A 0.1 deviation was not enough to get me into a trade. I wanted a 0.3 deviation to get me into this one. Not much reaction from the market.

Watch the video

Contract: Mini Dow
Result: No Trade

Prior: 56.0
Expected: 55.3
Actual: 59.7

Decent deviation but no follow through from the markets. We got a spike up in all markets and then nothing. Half an hour later the market sold off quite hard.

Watch the video Best to Right click and Save As… Video is 30mins long.

 Dow

Contract: Mini Dow
Result: No Trade (went short after the number)

Prior: 54.7
Expected: 54
Actual: 55

I didn’t trade the number, I just watched to see what the market was going to do. As the dow made a double top on the 2min chart I went short at the top of the 30min opening range and rode it down to the bottom of the opening range. You can watch the trade live in the video.

Watch the video (27min long. Right click and Save As…)

Dow

Pair: Euro Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 88K (revised to 80K)
Expected: 131K
Actual: 157K

A small deviation of 26K, so a no trade for me. I wanted to see 50K deviation for a small position and 70K deviation for a larger position. The ES and YM moved more than the currency futures.

Watch the video

Euro

ES

YM

DAX

British Pound

Result: No Trade

I wanted to trade either the ES or the YM after this report, but the market was extremely choppy for over half an hour after the report. My intial reaction was a move higher because of uncomfortably high inflation which would indicate an interest rate rise, hence a rise in value of the US Dollar. However the market did not know what to make of the report as we had very high chop on high volume. High volume chop can get very nasty with big price swings. I therefore stood aside, even though I wanted to buy.

Watch the video (warning long video – 20mins. Best to right-click and Save)

YM

Euro

DAX

Contract: Mini Dow
Result: No Trade

Prior: 6.12M (revised to 6.15M)
Expected: 6.14M
Actual: 5.99M

I wanted a trigger of 0.3 to get into a trade on the short side and a trigger of 0.6 for the long side, simply because the Dow is in bear phase in the market cycle on a 5 and 15 minute chart. I was already long from 13479 when this number came out with a stop at 13487. When the number was released, the market spiked down slightly and then headed up and chopped for the rest of the day. My stop got hit and took me out of my trade for +8.

Watch the video 

Dow 

British Pound

Euro

Contract: British Pound Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 0.7%
Expected: 0.7%
Actual: 0.7%

Number came out as expected so a no trade. Not much to say. Market hardly moved as the number was released.

Watch the video

Pair: British Pound Futures
Result: Buy (straddle)

Prior: 7-2
Expected: 8-1
Actual: 9-0

We were expecting 8 members of the board to vote for the recent rate rise and 1 to vote against. The number came out as everyone in favour so that pound strengthened on this news. Interest rate rises strengthen a currency and when traders learn that all members of the board were in favour of rate rises, this gives more weight to the decision.

I got in long at 1.9724 with 2 contracts and took 10 ticks profit on half the position at 1.9734, second target 1.9744. When the first target was hit I moved the stop to breakeven + 1. Price came down and took out my breakeven stop after hitting the first target, so the second target did not get hit, even though the market did move there after my stop was hit.

Nice little trade, I did it for fun more than anything. I wasn’t willing to risk much on it.

Watch the video

Contract: Mini Dow

Prior: 87.1
Expected: 86.4
Actual: 88.7

I traded the dow futures on this report. I didn’t use the autoclick, I wanted to see how the market took the figures and then trade off that. I bought the YM at  13556 and sold at 13582 for 26 ticks profit.

Watch the video

Pair: Canadian Dollar Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 1.0% (revised to 1.1%)
Expected: 1.1%
Actual: 1.1%

Number came out as expected so a no trade. I wanted the main figure to be in the same direction as my trade and this deviated a lot (expected 0.7%, actual 1.9%), so this figure moved the canadian dollar quite nicely.

Watch the video

Pair: British Pound Futures
Result: Sell

Prior: 0.3% revised to 0.5%
Expected: 0.6%
Actual: -0.1%

I got very bad slippage on this report, I suspect because of my internet connection and computer equipment not being the newest available. I got in very late at 3 seconds after the report and hence got a bad fill. I got in the market at 1.9711 and sold half at 1.9701 for 10 ticks profit, the market then hit my 10 tick stop, however the best offer was at 1.9736 so I got filled there for -25 loss on the second half of the position for a total of -15. The revision ruined this one for me, not much you can do about that in the time given, especially in the futures markets where you can only trade on the best bids and offers at the time you want to trade. In my case the best bid was at 1.9711 when I wanted to sell and when I wanted to get out the best offer was 1.9736.

Watch the video

Pair: Canadian Dollar Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 0.3%
Expected: 0.1%
Actual: 0.2%

I wanted a deviation of 0.3% for a small position and 0.5% for a larger position. As the deviation was only 0.1%, I had a no-trade.

Watch the video

Pair: Euro Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: -0.2% (revised to 0.3%)
Expected: 0.3%
Actual: 0.7%

I wanted a deviation of 0.5% weak, 0.7% strong to get into this one. As we only got 0.4% I had a no trade. Not much else to say.

Watch the video

Pair: Euro Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 1.52M (revised to 1.49)
Expected: 1.49M
Actual: 1.53M

I wanted a deviation of 0.3 (300,000 new homes) to get into a trade. I haven’t traded this report on its own before, it usually comes out with another report such as CPI or PPI. A no trade for me which I liked because as soon as the report was released the previous number was revised worse, and I got an abort signal – as can be seen in the video.

Watch the video

Pair: Euro Futures
Result: No Trade

CPI (Exc Food)

Prior: 0.1%
Expected: 0.2%
Actual: 0.2%

Number came in as expected and business conditions index came in 1.0 worse so a no trade. Euro moved a couple of minutes after the report, but didn’t spike much. The stock indexes rallied hard as fears of a negative number were eliminated. We should expect a gentle rally in the indexes today.

Watch the video 

ES

YM

Contract: British Pound Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 0.5%
Expected: 0.2%
Actual: 0.2%

Number came in as expected so a no-trade. I wanted to see a deviation of 0.2% to get into a trade for this one, and a deviation of 0.3% for a bigger position.

Watch the video 

Contract: British Pound Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 1.2%
Expected: 1.0%
Actual: 0.7%

I wanted a 0.5 deviation for a weak signal and a 0.7 deviation for a strong signal. As we only got 0.3 deviation, I didn’t take the trade. The market drifted lower after the report, but there were no spike trading profits to be had here.

Watch the video

Contract: Euro Futures
Result: No Trade

Retail Sales
Prior: 0.8% revised to 1.1%
Expected: 0.5%
Actual: 0.0%

PPI 
Prior: 1.0%
Expected: 0.6%
Actual: 0.7%

I was away and did not trade this report, it is recorded here for my own records.

Euro

DAX

YM

Pair: Canadian Dollar Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 54.9K
Expected: 18.5K
Actual: -5.2K

I was away and did not trade this report, it is recorded here for my own records.

Pair: Euro Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: -58.4B (revised to -57.9B)
Expected: -60.0B
Actual: -63.9B

I was away and did not trade this report, it is recorded here for my own records.

Contract: British Pound Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 5.25%
Expected: 5.5%
Actual: 5.5%

I was away and did not trade this report, it is recorded here for my own records.

Pair: British Pound Futures
Result: No Trade

Trade Balance
Prior: -6.8B (revised to -6.9B)
Expected: -6.7B
Actual: -7.0B

Industrial Production
Prior: -0.2% (revised to -0.3%)
Expected: 0.4%
Actual: 0.3%

I was away and did not trade this report, it is recorded here for my own records.

Pair: GBP/USD or British Pound Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 5.25%
Expected: 5.25%
Actual: 5.25%

I was away and did not trade this report, it is recorded here for my own records.

British Pound

Euro

YM

DAX

Pair: Euro Futures
Result: No Trade
Prior: 180K (revised to 177K)
Expected: 107K
Actual: 88K

I looked for a 50K deviation to get in with a weak lot, and 60K for a strong. Not enough for a trade, so I stayed out.

Watch the video

I am observing what happens with these numbers. I did not trade this report, I am watching it for a potential straddle trade in the future. The only trouble with straddle trades on more than 1 report is that you can get evil whipsaws. The DAX and the stock indices did move a fair bit on these reports as they all came out positive for the USA. The currencies did not react as much.

Click for video

DAX

ES

YM

Euro

Contract: British Pound Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 57.6
Expected: 57.5
Actual: 57.2

I wanted a 2.0 deviation to get into a trade but only got 0.3. Market didn’t react at all.

Click for video 

Contract: Dax futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 100K revised to 98K
Expected: 107K
Actual: 64K

Click for video of this trade

I’m not expecting a trade from this report. It’s a fairly new report so will be watching to see if it is tradeable. The deviation was fairly decent but I used a 50K deviation, so a no trade for me.  I think traders are waiting for the main NFP report on Friday 4th May, and don’t really trust this one too much. It will be interesting to see what the NFP numbers are – if they are similar to the ADP numbers, then the ADP may gain more credibility.

Euro futures

Contract: Mini Dow
Result: No Trade

Prior: 50.9
Expected: 51.0
Actual: 54.7

A big deviation should have seen the market take off on this number but for some reason it didn’t it spike up and the retraced immediately. The currencies reacted more smoothly. I would like to have seen how the DAX would have reacted but it was closed today as it’s May day. I did not trade this report directly, rather traded the aftermath on the mini dow.

You can see a video of the trade here.

Euro

Contract: British Pound Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 54.4
Expected: 54.0
Actual: 53.9

I wanted to see 2.0 deviation to get into this trade, but didn’t expect anything – I’ve never actually got into a trade on this report before. We got 0.1, so a no trade. Market didn’t react at all.

Contract: Canadian Dollar Futures
Result: Buy

Prior: 0.1%
Expected: 0.2%
Actual: 0.4%

I set my deviation to +/- 0.2% for a weak signal and +/- 0.4% for a strong signal. As the US Personal Spending report was due out at the same time, I wanted that figure to confirm with the Canada GDP. So for the canadian dollar if the number came out better than expected, then I wanted to see the USA Personal Income spending come out worse as that would push the Canadian Dollar up. This is exactly what happened.

At the time I had a system crash so I was trading off my backup laptop and my mind wasn’t completely focused on the trade. I got filled at  0.8983 and the first 20-30 seconds the dollar just sat there not moving at all. I therefore moved my target to +1 to get out to cover commissions. When you are spike news trading you want to see the thing move quick, and if it doesn’t, that’s usually not a good sign.

A minute or two later, price started to lift slowly but surely – rather strange for a news release. So I only managed to get 1 tick from a move of  40 ticks (within 15 minutes). Slightly disappointing, but a lesson learned for the next Canadian GDP report.

Tape

Contract: Dax futures
Result: Sell

Prior: 2.5%
Expected: 1.8%
Actual: 1.3%

I was looking for a 0.3% deviation to trade a small position and 0.6% deviation for a larger position. Number came in at 0.5% worse than expected so I got into the trade and out again within seconds. I set a target of 20 ticks for the weak, and for the strong signal it would have been 20 ticks on half the position and 40 ticks for the other half. The DAX moved 67 ticks in total and I took 20 ticks out. So not a great trade, but a relatively safe one, so I’m happy with it.

British pound

Euro

Euro and british pound didn’t move a great deal.

Contract: Mini Dow Futures
Result: Sell

Prior: 0.85M revised to 0.84M
Expected: 0.89M
Actual: 0.86M

I didn’t use the autoclick for this trade. I straddled the mini dow futures as this is my main day trading market. As this report came out during the pit session, I wanted to straddle it. I placed a sell stop at 13030 and a buy stop at 13050. When the report came out my sell stop was hit and the market dropped 20 points. I made a mistake in my exit order and got short again when I should have closed. So that cost me a few points but not much. Nice trade – as it was counter-trend I wanted to take profit fairly quick so set a modest target of 20 points.

British pound

Contract: Dax futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: -0.1% revised to -0.4%
Expected: 1.1%
Actual: 1.5%

I wanted a 0.8% deviation on this trade. We only got 0.4 so a no trade for me.

Contract: British Pound Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 0.7%
Expected: 0.6%
Actual: 0.7%

Very small deviation on a report that has never given me a decent trade. I set my deviation to 0.2% for a weak signal and 0.4% for a strong. As the deviation was only 0.1% I didn’t trade.

Pair: Canadian Dollar Futures
Result: Buy

Prior: 4.25
Expected: 4.25
Actual: 4.25

As previous reports had moved the canadian dollar up on an unchanged figure, I decided to buy just 1 contract with a 10 tick stop if the number was unchanged. Number was unchanged so I got into the market at the open price of the candle at 0.8941 and set my stop at 0.8931 with a target of 0.8961.

Shortly after I got into the trade I got stopped out for -10 ticks. This was a low probability trade, and on hindsight, I shouldn’t have taken it, but I did limit my risk to just the 1 contract.

Pair: Canadian Dollar Futures
Result: Buy

Prior: 0.3% (revised to 0.2%)
Expected: 0.4%
Actual: 1.0%

Nice 0.6 deviation there for a weak buy signal. I did not trade this as I was out doing other things. However if I had traded it I would have got in with a buy with a small lot. The worst fill I might have got was at 0.8902 level. This allowed for a 20 tick profit on the first 5mins with a peak of 30 ticks over the next couple of hours. Not a great response from the market considering the deviation was decent.

Tape:

Pair: GBP/USD or British Pound Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 1.4% revised to 1.6%
Expected: 0.5%
Actual: 0.3%

I needed a deviation of 0.3% to get a trade on this one. As the deviation was only 0.2% I stood aside. Market didn’t move a great deal in response to the low deviation.

Pair: Canadian Dollar Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 0.5
Expected: 0.2
Actual: 0.3

Not enough deviation for a trade. headline figure came in slightly better too. Market moved 15 ticks after slippage – so could have snagged 10 ticks profit or so, but not much more than that realistically. Low probability trade, glad I stayed out.

I straddled this report 10 ticks either side of the market about 5 secs before the report was released and got long at 2.0110. I took profit on half the position at 10 ticks profit (2.0120) and left my stop at 2.0100. About an hour and a half later my stop was taken out so, I got a scratch trade. Nice low risk trade, although I didn’t make any money on it, I was positioned to take advantage of any move should it come.

Pair: Euro Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior:
Expected: 0.0%
Actual: 0.2%

Very small deviation resulting in a no-trade. DAX:

Euro

Pair: Euro Futures
Result: No Trade

CPI (Exc Food)

Prior: 0.2%
Expected: 0.2%
Actual: 0.1%

Housing Starts
Prior: 1.51M
Expected: 1.50M
Actual: 1.52M

I looked to trade this report using the DAX futures as they tend to react more to news reports than the euro. This report was interesting because it seems that the stock index futures such as the DAX, YM and ES were looking more to the housing numbers, and the currencies were more interested in the CPI number. Hence the Euro rallied up 20 ticks on the news, and at the same time the DAX rallied 80 ticks. I was expecting the DAX to decline on this result as the CPI number was slightly worse than expected, but the Housing figures trumped the CPI. Here’s a chart of the DAX:

That was a huge over-reaction (in my opinion). Contrast that with the Euro:

The euro did seem to get a second wind after 10 minutes or so. Here’s the ES:

To me, that report was a bit confusing as we had CPI, Core CPI and Housing Starts all together. The two main reports conflicted with each other and different markets reacted differently. I’m glad I got the no-trade signal.

Contract: British Pound Futures
Result: Buy

Prior: 0.4%
Expected: 0.3%
Actual: 0.5%

A nice 0.2 deviation on this report. Even a 0.1 deviation can move this one a long way. 15 seconds before the report was released I noticed that I had the wrong order type set up on my platform. I quickly changed it, but I missed it in time. Moral of the story – make sure everything is ready and the trade is prepared 2mins before the report. Shame because this one moved 30 ticks.

Tape:

From the tape we can see that the worst fill would have been 1.9959 – which still leaves lots of room for 30 ticks profit.

Contract: Euro Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: -0.1% revised to 0.4%
Expected: 0.8%
Actual: 0.8%

No deviation at all, but the market moved slightly on the improved deviation, and also on the headline figure which was slightly better by 0.3%. Empire stats business conditions was down, so a bit of a mixed bag on this one.

DAX

Contract: British Pound Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 1.3% (revised to 1.5%)
Expected: 0.9%
Actual: 1.2%

I set a weak deviation of 0.6 and a strong of 1.0 for small and large lots respectively. Deviation was 0.3, so a no trade. The pound looks very strong right now, almost at 52 week highs – how much higher can it go before a sell-off?

Tape

Pair: Euro Futures
Result: No Trade

PPI 
Prior: 0.4%
Expected: 0.2%
Actual: 0.0%

Trade Balance
Prior: -58.9B
Expected: -60.2B
Actual: -58.4B

Small deviations and both reports conflicted so a no-trade. Not much else to say. The market did not know which way to go as can be seen by the extreme doji candle on the release. Nasty whipsaw if you traded that report with a tight stop.

Contract: Euro
Result: No Trade

Prior: 3.75%
Expected: 3.75%
Actual: 3.75%

There was a 99% chance that this would be a no trade, but you’ve got to have your rod in the river to catch the fish, right? If this had deviated it would have moved big time. As expected though, there was no change.

Pair: GBP/USD or British Pound Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: -6.2B (revised to -6.4B)
Expected: -6.4B
Actual: -6.8B

I set my deviation to 0.5 for a small order and 1.0 for a large order. Got 0.4 deviation, so a no-trade. Market declined slightly but not a great deal. Certainly not enough for a low probability trade. I noticed the spread widening considerably at this news release.

Tape

The tape was very thin – very few people were sitting on the bid or offer, and not many people entered with market orders (including me). An untradeable report.

As this trade can cause whipsaws, I decided not to straddle it. I wanted to try Hubert Senters’s “Hot knife through butter” trade which goes as follows: on a thrust move (such as a news release), wait for the NYSE TICK on a 1min line-on-close chart to hook in the direction of the thrust move. When it hooks, enter at the market. This is best illustrated with the trade I took on the mini Dow (YM). Here’s a chart of the YM:

The blue arrow is the entry point where the tick moves up in its bracket and then starts to hook down. This also happens to be at daily S4, so instead of going in at the market, I placed an offer at daily S4 for a better fill. I got filled nicely and then price declined and I took +5 on half and +10 on quarter and let the other quarter run. This was a nice trade to finish the day.

Here’s the NYSE TICK chart:

The DAX, as always moved very strongly on the release of the meeting minutes. I love the DAX, however I am a bit wary of it as it is a big contract. But it does react strongly to news and is moves very smoothly.

DAX

Euro

Of course the euro was very slow to react and barely reacted at all compared to the major stock indices.

Pair: Euro Futures
Result: No Trade
Prior: 97K (revised to 113K)
Expected: 135K
Actual: 180K

This report came out on Good Friday which is a holiday in USA, which means very low liquidity. The main indices were closed with currency futures closing at 10:15am EST. This report comes out at 8:30 EST. I decided not to trade it as the trading conditions were not typical. Had a nice deviation this month and the market didn’t move as much as it would have done if a normal trading day. From the charts and tape it looks like liquidity was extremely thin with the market only moving 20 ticks on the pound. I don’t like the look of the upper wick on the opening news candle – nasty whipsaw, glad I didn’t trade it.

Tape

Euro

We have the same whipsaw as seen on the british pound. This is highlighted and made clearer by zooming in with a 25 tick chart:

Nasty whipsaw.