FOMC Meeting Minutes

Result: No Trade

I wanted to trade either the ES or the YM after this report, but the market was extremely choppy for over half an hour after the report. My intial reaction was a move higher because of uncomfortably high inflation which would indicate an interest rate rise, hence a rise in value of the US Dollar. However the market did not know what to make of the report as we had very high chop on high volume. High volume chop can get very nasty with big price swings. I therefore stood aside, even though I wanted to buy.

Watch the video (warning long video – 20mins. Best to right-click and Save)

YM

Euro

DAX

USA Existing Home Sales

Contract: Mini Dow
Result: No Trade

Prior: 6.12M (revised to 6.15M)
Expected: 6.14M
Actual: 5.99M

I wanted a trigger of 0.3 to get into a trade on the short side and a trigger of 0.6 for the long side, simply because the Dow is in bear phase in the market cycle on a 5 and 15 minute chart. I was already long from 13479 when this number came out with a stop at 13487. When the number was released, the market spiked down slightly and then headed up and chopped for the rest of the day. My stop got hit and took me out of my trade for +8.

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Dow 

British Pound

Euro

UK GDP (QoQ)

Contract: British Pound Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 0.7%
Expected: 0.7%
Actual: 0.7%

Number came out as expected so a no trade. Not much to say. Market hardly moved as the number was released.

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Bank of England Meeting Minutes

Pair: British Pound Futures
Result: Buy (straddle)

Prior: 7-2
Expected: 8-1
Actual: 9-0

We were expecting 8 members of the board to vote for the recent rate rise and 1 to vote against. The number came out as everyone in favour so that pound strengthened on this news. Interest rate rises strengthen a currency and when traders learn that all members of the board were in favour of rate rises, this gives more weight to the decision.

I got in long at 1.9724 with 2 contracts and took 10 ticks profit on half the position at 1.9734, second target 1.9744. When the first target was hit I moved the stop to breakeven + 1. Price came down and took out my breakeven stop after hitting the first target, so the second target did not get hit, even though the market did move there after my stop was hit.

Nice little trade, I did it for fun more than anything. I wasn’t willing to risk much on it.

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USA Consumer Sentiment

Contract: Mini Dow

Prior: 87.1
Expected: 86.4
Actual: 88.7

I traded the dow futures on this report. I didn’t use the autoclick, I wanted to see how the market took the figures and then trade off that. I bought the YM at  13556 and sold at 13582 for 26 ticks profit.

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Canada Retail Sales (Core)

Pair: Canadian Dollar Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 1.0% (revised to 1.1%)
Expected: 1.1%
Actual: 1.1%

Number came out as expected so a no trade. I wanted the main figure to be in the same direction as my trade and this deviated a lot (expected 0.7%, actual 1.9%), so this figure moved the canadian dollar quite nicely.

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UK Retail Sales

Pair: British Pound Futures
Result: Sell

Prior: 0.3% revised to 0.5%
Expected: 0.6%
Actual: -0.1%

I got very bad slippage on this report, I suspect because of my internet connection and computer equipment not being the newest available. I got in very late at 3 seconds after the report and hence got a bad fill. I got in the market at 1.9711 and sold half at 1.9701 for 10 ticks profit, the market then hit my 10 tick stop, however the best offer was at 1.9736 so I got filled there for -25 loss on the second half of the position for a total of -15. The revision ruined this one for me, not much you can do about that in the time given, especially in the futures markets where you can only trade on the best bids and offers at the time you want to trade. In my case the best bid was at 1.9711 when I wanted to sell and when I wanted to get out the best offer was 1.9736.

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Canada CPI

Pair: Canadian Dollar Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 0.3%
Expected: 0.1%
Actual: 0.2%

I wanted a deviation of 0.3% for a small position and 0.5% for a larger position. As the deviation was only 0.1%, I had a no-trade.

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USA Industrial Production

Pair: Euro Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: -0.2% (revised to 0.3%)
Expected: 0.3%
Actual: 0.7%

I wanted a deviation of 0.5% weak, 0.7% strong to get into this one. As we only got 0.4% I had a no trade. Not much else to say.

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USA Housing Starts

Pair: Euro Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 1.52M (revised to 1.49)
Expected: 1.49M
Actual: 1.53M

I wanted a deviation of 0.3 (300,000 new homes) to get into a trade. I haven’t traded this report on its own before, it usually comes out with another report such as CPI or PPI. A no trade for me which I liked because as soon as the report was released the previous number was revised worse, and I got an abort signal – as can be seen in the video.

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USA CPI & Empire Business Conditions Index

Pair: Euro Futures
Result: No Trade

CPI (Exc Food)

Prior: 0.1%
Expected: 0.2%
Actual: 0.2%

Number came in as expected and business conditions index came in 1.0 worse so a no trade. Euro moved a couple of minutes after the report, but didn’t spike much. The stock indexes rallied hard as fears of a negative number were eliminated. We should expect a gentle rally in the indexes today.

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ES

YM

UK CPI

Contract: British Pound Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 0.5%
Expected: 0.2%
Actual: 0.2%

Number came in as expected so a no-trade. I wanted to see a deviation of 0.2% to get into a trade for this one, and a deviation of 0.3% for a bigger position.

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UK PPI

Contract: British Pound Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 1.2%
Expected: 1.0%
Actual: 0.7%

I wanted a 0.5 deviation for a weak signal and a 0.7 deviation for a strong signal. As we only got 0.3 deviation, I didn’t take the trade. The market drifted lower after the report, but there were no spike trading profits to be had here.

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USA Core Retail Sales & Core PPI

Contract: Euro Futures
Result: No Trade

Retail Sales
Prior: 0.8% revised to 1.1%
Expected: 0.5%
Actual: 0.0%

PPI 
Prior: 1.0%
Expected: 0.6%
Actual: 0.7%

I was away and did not trade this report, it is recorded here for my own records.

Euro

DAX

YM

Canada Employment Change

Pair: Canadian Dollar Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 54.9K
Expected: 18.5K
Actual: -5.2K

I was away and did not trade this report, it is recorded here for my own records.

USA Trade Balance

Pair: Euro Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: -58.4B (revised to -57.9B)
Expected: -60.0B
Actual: -63.9B

I was away and did not trade this report, it is recorded here for my own records.

UK Interest Rate Statement

Contract: British Pound Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 5.25%
Expected: 5.5%
Actual: 5.5%

I was away and did not trade this report, it is recorded here for my own records.

UK Trade Balance & Industrial Production

Pair: British Pound Futures
Result: No Trade

Trade Balance
Prior: -6.8B (revised to -6.9B)
Expected: -6.7B
Actual: -7.0B

Industrial Production
Prior: -0.2% (revised to -0.3%)
Expected: 0.4%
Actual: 0.3%

I was away and did not trade this report, it is recorded here for my own records.

US FOMC Rate Decision

Pair: GBP/USD or British Pound Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 5.25%
Expected: 5.25%
Actual: 5.25%

I was away and did not trade this report, it is recorded here for my own records.

British Pound

Euro

YM

DAX

USA Non-Farm Payroll

Pair: Euro Futures
Result: No Trade
Prior: 180K (revised to 177K)
Expected: 107K
Actual: 88K

I looked for a 50K deviation to get in with a weak lot, and 60K for a strong. Not enough for a trade, so I stayed out.

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USA Jobless Claims, Unit Labor Costs, NonFarm Productivity

I am observing what happens with these numbers. I did not trade this report, I am watching it for a potential straddle trade in the future. The only trouble with straddle trades on more than 1 report is that you can get evil whipsaws. The DAX and the stock indices did move a fair bit on these reports as they all came out positive for the USA. The currencies did not react as much.

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DAX

ES

YM

Euro

UK PMI Services

Contract: British Pound Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 57.6
Expected: 57.5
Actual: 57.2

I wanted a 2.0 deviation to get into a trade but only got 0.3. Market didn’t react at all.

Click for video 

USA ADP NonFarm Employment Change

Contract: Dax futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 100K revised to 98K
Expected: 107K
Actual: 64K

Click for video of this trade

I’m not expecting a trade from this report. It’s a fairly new report so will be watching to see if it is tradeable. The deviation was fairly decent but I used a 50K deviation, so a no trade for me.  I think traders are waiting for the main NFP report on Friday 4th May, and don’t really trust this one too much. It will be interesting to see what the NFP numbers are – if they are similar to the ADP numbers, then the ADP may gain more credibility.

Euro futures

USA ISM Manufacturing

Contract: Mini Dow
Result: No Trade

Prior: 50.9
Expected: 51.0
Actual: 54.7

A big deviation should have seen the market take off on this number but for some reason it didn’t it spike up and the retraced immediately. The currencies reacted more smoothly. I would like to have seen how the DAX would have reacted but it was closed today as it’s May day. I did not trade this report directly, rather traded the aftermath on the mini dow.

You can see a video of the trade here.

Euro

UK PMI

Contract: British Pound Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 54.4
Expected: 54.0
Actual: 53.9

I wanted to see 2.0 deviation to get into this trade, but didn’t expect anything – I’ve never actually got into a trade on this report before. We got 0.1, so a no trade. Market didn’t react at all.