Canada GDP

Contract: Canadian Dollar Futures
Result: Buy

Prior: 0.1%
Expected: 0.2%
Actual: 0.4%

I set my deviation to +/- 0.2% for a weak signal and +/- 0.4% for a strong signal. As the US Personal Spending report was due out at the same time, I wanted that figure to confirm with the Canada GDP. So for the canadian dollar if the number came out better than expected, then I wanted to see the USA Personal Income spending come out worse as that would push the Canadian Dollar up. This is exactly what happened.

At the time I had a system crash so I was trading off my backup laptop and my mind wasn’t completely focused on the trade. I got filled at  0.8983 and the first 20-30 seconds the dollar just sat there not moving at all. I therefore moved my target to +1 to get out to cover commissions. When you are spike news trading you want to see the thing move quick, and if it doesn’t, that’s usually not a good sign.

A minute or two later, price started to lift slowly but surely – rather strange for a news release. So I only managed to get 1 tick from a move of  40 ticks (within 15 minutes). Slightly disappointing, but a lesson learned for the next Canadian GDP report.

Tape

USA GDP

Contract: Dax futures
Result: Sell

Prior: 2.5%
Expected: 1.8%
Actual: 1.3%

I was looking for a 0.3% deviation to trade a small position and 0.6% deviation for a larger position. Number came in at 0.5% worse than expected so I got into the trade and out again within seconds. I set a target of 20 ticks for the weak, and for the strong signal it would have been 20 ticks on half the position and 40 ticks for the other half. The DAX moved 67 ticks in total and I took 20 ticks out. So not a great trade, but a relatively safe one, so I’m happy with it.

British pound

Euro

Euro and british pound didn’t move a great deal.

USA New Home Sales

Contract: Mini Dow Futures
Result: Sell

Prior: 0.85M revised to 0.84M
Expected: 0.89M
Actual: 0.86M

I didn’t use the autoclick for this trade. I straddled the mini dow futures as this is my main day trading market. As this report came out during the pit session, I wanted to straddle it. I placed a sell stop at 13030 and a buy stop at 13050. When the report came out my sell stop was hit and the market dropped 20 points. I made a mistake in my exit order and got short again when I should have closed. So that cost me a few points but not much. Nice trade – as it was counter-trend I wanted to take profit fairly quick so set a modest target of 20 points.

British pound

USA Durable Goods

Contract: Dax futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: -0.1% revised to -0.4%
Expected: 1.1%
Actual: 1.5%

I wanted a 0.8% deviation on this trade. We only got 0.4 so a no trade for me.

UK GDP (QoQ)

Contract: British Pound Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 0.7%
Expected: 0.6%
Actual: 0.7%

Very small deviation on a report that has never given me a decent trade. I set my deviation to 0.2% for a weak signal and 0.4% for a strong. As the deviation was only 0.1% I didn’t trade.

Canada Interest Rates

Pair: Canadian Dollar Futures
Result: Buy

Prior: 4.25
Expected: 4.25
Actual: 4.25

As previous reports had moved the canadian dollar up on an unchanged figure, I decided to buy just 1 contract with a 10 tick stop if the number was unchanged. Number was unchanged so I got into the market at the open price of the candle at 0.8941 and set my stop at 0.8931 with a target of 0.8961.

Shortly after I got into the trade I got stopped out for -10 ticks. This was a low probability trade, and on hindsight, I shouldn’t have taken it, but I did limit my risk to just the 1 contract.

Canada Retail Sales (Core)

Pair: Canadian Dollar Futures
Result: Buy

Prior: 0.3% (revised to 0.2%)
Expected: 0.4%
Actual: 1.0%

Nice 0.6 deviation there for a weak buy signal. I did not trade this as I was out doing other things. However if I had traded it I would have got in with a buy with a small lot. The worst fill I might have got was at 0.8902 level. This allowed for a 20 tick profit on the first 5mins with a peak of 30 ticks over the next couple of hours. Not a great response from the market considering the deviation was decent.

Tape:

UK Retail Sales

Pair: GBP/USD or British Pound Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 1.4% revised to 1.6%
Expected: 0.5%
Actual: 0.3%

I needed a deviation of 0.3% to get a trade on this one. As the deviation was only 0.2% I stood aside. Market didn’t move a great deal in response to the low deviation.

Canada CPI

Pair: Canadian Dollar Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 0.5
Expected: 0.2
Actual: 0.3

Not enough deviation for a trade. headline figure came in slightly better too. Market moved 15 ticks after slippage – so could have snagged 10 ticks profit or so, but not much more than that realistically. Low probability trade, glad I stayed out.

Bank of England Meeting Minutes

I straddled this report 10 ticks either side of the market about 5 secs before the report was released and got long at 2.0110. I took profit on half the position at 10 ticks profit (2.0120) and left my stop at 2.0100. About an hour and a half later my stop was taken out so, I got a scratch trade. Nice low risk trade, although I didn’t make any money on it, I was positioned to take advantage of any move should it come.

USA Industrial Production

Pair: Euro Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior:
Expected: 0.0%
Actual: 0.2%

Very small deviation resulting in a no-trade. DAX:

Euro

USA CPI and Housing Starts

Pair: Euro Futures
Result: No Trade

CPI (Exc Food)

Prior: 0.2%
Expected: 0.2%
Actual: 0.1%

Housing Starts
Prior: 1.51M
Expected: 1.50M
Actual: 1.52M

I looked to trade this report using the DAX futures as they tend to react more to news reports than the euro. This report was interesting because it seems that the stock index futures such as the DAX, YM and ES were looking more to the housing numbers, and the currencies were more interested in the CPI number. Hence the Euro rallied up 20 ticks on the news, and at the same time the DAX rallied 80 ticks. I was expecting the DAX to decline on this result as the CPI number was slightly worse than expected, but the Housing figures trumped the CPI. Here’s a chart of the DAX:

That was a huge over-reaction (in my opinion). Contrast that with the Euro:

The euro did seem to get a second wind after 10 minutes or so. Here’s the ES:

To me, that report was a bit confusing as we had CPI, Core CPI and Housing Starts all together. The two main reports conflicted with each other and different markets reacted differently. I’m glad I got the no-trade signal.

UK CPI (MoM)

Contract: British Pound Futures
Result: Buy

Prior: 0.4%
Expected: 0.3%
Actual: 0.5%

A nice 0.2 deviation on this report. Even a 0.1 deviation can move this one a long way. 15 seconds before the report was released I noticed that I had the wrong order type set up on my platform. I quickly changed it, but I missed it in time. Moral of the story – make sure everything is ready and the trade is prepared 2mins before the report. Shame because this one moved 30 ticks.

Tape:

From the tape we can see that the worst fill would have been 1.9959 – which still leaves lots of room for 30 ticks profit.

USA Retail Sales (Core) & Empire State Business Conditions

Contract: Euro Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: -0.1% revised to 0.4%
Expected: 0.8%
Actual: 0.8%

No deviation at all, but the market moved slightly on the improved deviation, and also on the headline figure which was slightly better by 0.3%. Empire stats business conditions was down, so a bit of a mixed bag on this one.

DAX

UK PPI (Input)

Contract: British Pound Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 1.3% (revised to 1.5%)
Expected: 0.9%
Actual: 1.2%

I set a weak deviation of 0.6 and a strong of 1.0 for small and large lots respectively. Deviation was 0.3, so a no trade. The pound looks very strong right now, almost at 52 week highs – how much higher can it go before a sell-off?

Tape

USA PPI and Trade Balance

Pair: Euro Futures
Result: No Trade

PPI 
Prior: 0.4%
Expected: 0.2%
Actual: 0.0%

Trade Balance
Prior: -58.9B
Expected: -60.2B
Actual: -58.4B

Small deviations and both reports conflicted so a no-trade. Not much else to say. The market did not know which way to go as can be seen by the extreme doji candle on the release. Nasty whipsaw if you traded that report with a tight stop.

ECB Interest Rate Statement

Contract: Euro
Result: No Trade

Prior: 3.75%
Expected: 3.75%
Actual: 3.75%

There was a 99% chance that this would be a no trade, but you’ve got to have your rod in the river to catch the fish, right? If this had deviated it would have moved big time. As expected though, there was no change.

UK Trade Balance

Pair: GBP/USD or British Pound Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: -6.2B (revised to -6.4B)
Expected: -6.4B
Actual: -6.8B

I set my deviation to 0.5 for a small order and 1.0 for a large order. Got 0.4 deviation, so a no-trade. Market declined slightly but not a great deal. Certainly not enough for a low probability trade. I noticed the spread widening considerably at this news release.

Tape

The tape was very thin – very few people were sitting on the bid or offer, and not many people entered with market orders (including me). An untradeable report.

FOMC Meeting Minutes

As this trade can cause whipsaws, I decided not to straddle it. I wanted to try Hubert Senters’s “Hot knife through butter” trade which goes as follows: on a thrust move (such as a news release), wait for the NYSE TICK on a 1min line-on-close chart to hook in the direction of the thrust move. When it hooks, enter at the market. This is best illustrated with the trade I took on the mini Dow (YM). Here’s a chart of the YM:

The blue arrow is the entry point where the tick moves up in its bracket and then starts to hook down. This also happens to be at daily S4, so instead of going in at the market, I placed an offer at daily S4 for a better fill. I got filled nicely and then price declined and I took +5 on half and +10 on quarter and let the other quarter run. This was a nice trade to finish the day.

Here’s the NYSE TICK chart:

The DAX, as always moved very strongly on the release of the meeting minutes. I love the DAX, however I am a bit wary of it as it is a big contract. But it does react strongly to news and is moves very smoothly.

DAX

Euro

Of course the euro was very slow to react and barely reacted at all compared to the major stock indices.

USA Non Farm Payroll

Pair: Euro Futures
Result: No Trade
Prior: 97K (revised to 113K)
Expected: 135K
Actual: 180K

This report came out on Good Friday which is a holiday in USA, which means very low liquidity. The main indices were closed with currency futures closing at 10:15am EST. This report comes out at 8:30 EST. I decided not to trade it as the trading conditions were not typical. Had a nice deviation this month and the market didn’t move as much as it would have done if a normal trading day. From the charts and tape it looks like liquidity was extremely thin with the market only moving 20 ticks on the pound. I don’t like the look of the upper wick on the opening news candle – nasty whipsaw, glad I didn’t trade it.

Tape

Euro

We have the same whipsaw as seen on the british pound. This is highlighted and made clearer by zooming in with a 25 tick chart:

Nasty whipsaw.

Canada Employment Change Figures

Pair: Canadian Dollar Futures
Result: Buy

Prior: 14.2K
Expected: 12.0K
Actual: 54.9K

I didn’t trade this as it came out at the same time as the UK Interest rates and I thought interest rates would be the better trade. Turns out I was wrong on that one. I have included this here for future reference. Nice move up on a huge deviation.

Tape

UK Interest Rate Statement

Contract: British Pound Futures
Result: Sell

Prior: 5.25%
Expected: 5.25%
Actual: 5.25%

The pound normally drops when rates stay the same so I put in a light lot for a sell on a no change. I set a target of 50 ticks and moved stop to breakeven when the market had moved 10 ticks in my favour. The market snapped back pretty quick and got me out for breakeven. At least I was positioned well for a move down.

 Tape

UK Industrial Production

Contract: British Pound Futures
Result: Sell

Prior: 0.1% (revised to 0.0%)
Expected: 0.2%
Actual: -0.2%

I set my weak deviation to 0.4 and strong deviation to 0.6. We got a 0.4 deviation so a weak sell signal for me using half my normal size. Unfortunately I had just woken up and only gave myself 10 minutes to prepare for the trade. I therefore overlooked my autoclick software and forgot to change the buy to a sell. I therefore got into the trade as a buyer, rather than a seller. Luckily for me the slippage was quite bad and I bought quite near the bottom of the candle. However when I saw this happen in real time, I clicked FLATTEN on my platform straight away in case the pound dropped hard and hit my stop. I lost 4 ticks, so no big deal, but an important lesson on preparation and double checking.

Tape:

Looking at the tape shows that I wasn’t the only one that was buying on this down spike – however I’m not sure if those buyers were news traders or not.

USA ISM (Non-Manufacturing)

Contract: Dow Futures
Result: Sell (Straddle)

Prior: 54.3
Expected: 54.8
Actual: 52.4

I haven’t traded this with the autoclick before and I notice that both the Dow and the DAX have been over-reacting to any news event lately. As the dow was chopping around for the first half hour of the session, I decided to straddle trade the Dow. I set a sell stop order at 12578 and a buy stop order at 12592 about 10 seconds before the report came out. I got stopped in on the short side with 2 ticks slippage and got +5 on half my position, +10 on quarter and final quarter was left to run with stop at breakeven. Shortly after my final quarter was stopped for breakeven. No follow-through momentum today, very choppy.

Tape

DAX reaction

Euro 

AUD Interest Rates

Contract: Australian Dollar Futures
Result: Sell

Prior: 6.25%
Expected: 6.25%
Actual: 6.25%

The market had priced in a rate rise and the estimate was 50-60% chance of a rise in rates. I therefore decided to sell the aussie dollar if the rate remained the same. Got a nice trade there but this market is so thin, that the slippage was very, well, slippy. I got filled at 0.8076 within 2 seconds of the number coming out, which isn’t bad considering the lack of liquidity in this market. I set a target of 30 ticks, and price got to 28 ticks before retracing, I therefore moved my stop down to 15 ticks profit and hoped that the 30 tick target would get hit first. However I shortly got stopped out for 13 ticks profit (2 ticks slippage on the exit). Nice little trade.

Tape

The tape was very thin too, look at the size of the orders going in, only 1 and 2 lot orders mostly. Just people playing around for fun like me, no serious professionals trading there.

USA ISM Manufacturing

Contract: Euro Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 52.3
Expected: 51.3
Actual: 50.9

A very small deviation gave a no-trade. Interestingly the DAX moved quite a lot on this news and the mini dow (YM) moved a fair way also. See screenshots below.

Euro

DAX

Dow (YM)

UK PMI (Manufacturing)

Contract: British Pound Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 55.4
Expected: 55.1
Actual: 54.4

This report doesn’t often move the market much, so I set a 2.0 deviation and traded only 1 contract. Deviation was too small, so a no-trade – market didn’t move and volume didn’t increase at all.