US FOMC

Pair: GBP/USD or British Pound Futures
Result: No Trade

Prior: 5.25%
Expected: 5.25%
Actual: 5.25%

I find it interesting to see how different markets interpret economic news event numbers. The FOMC decided to keep US interest rates unchanged and the US Dollar weakened on this news. See the british pound futures here getting stronger against the dollar:

However, when you look at how the emini S&P 500 futures reacted, they really took off with many locals in the SP pit getting stuck short as the banks kept hitting the locals’ offer and buying big time:

It only has to start with one big bank throwing in a large order, and the rest seem to follow with the result of the locals getting stuffed. How do I know this? I listen to the SP pit noise from here: http://www.tradersaudio.com They have a 3 day free trial – it can be quite funny and the guy calling the orders is very enthusiastic and obviously loves his job.

Description
The central bank’s governing body, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), releases an Interest Rate Statement eight times per year. The statement contains the latest decision regarding changes to the nation’s short term interest rate (“fed funds rate”), a brief report of the economic conditions that effected their decision, and most importantly, clues on what the next rate decision will be. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation; traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how interest rates may change in the future. What makes interest rates so important is that high rates attract foreigners looking for the best “risk-free” return on their money, which significantly increases demand for the nation’s currency. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising interest rates in an attempt to bring prices down. This is what makes inflation-predicting indicators so important. Traders know that rising prices will lead the central bank to raise interest rates, which ultimately leads to a more valuable currency.

US Consumer Confidence

Pair: GBP/USD
Result: No Trade

Prior: 109
Expected: 110.5
Actual: 110.3

Very small deviation resulted in a no trade.

Description
Measures the mood of consumers in regard to economic conditions. The reading is derived from a monthly survey that asks respondents to evaluate the prospects for the economy in the future. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism. When consumers are optimistic they tend to purchase more goods and services, which stimulates the economy.

USA Durable Goods (Exc Transport)

Pair: GBP/USD
Result: No Trade

Prior: -1.1%
Expected: 0.5%
Actual: 2.3%

A big deviation for a strong sell signal. I did however also look to the headline USA Durable Goods as confirmation. As the headline was slightly worse by 0.1%, I didn’t trade it. Shame, because I would have got some nice pips there, however it made the trade more risky as you can see from the pull back to the open of the news candle.

Description
Derivative of Durable Goods Orders that excludes the Transportation components. Orders for aircraft occur in periodic burst and can severely distort the underlying trend, so traders tend to focus more on this indicator than the overall Durable Goods Orders.

UK GDP

Pair: GBP/USD
Result: No Trade

Prior: 0.7%
Expected: 0.7%
Actual: 0.8%

I set my deviation to 0.2 and got a no-trade. Good job because the number came out slightly better than expected but the pound dropped on the BoE news, released very shortly after the GDP figures. If you used a 0.1 deviation there, you would almost certainly have hit your stop.

GDP Description
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of all goods and services produced by the economy. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. GDP is the broadest measure of activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health. To foreign investors, a strong economy is viewed favorably because it spurs investment opportunities in the domestic stock and bond markets. More importantly, the central bank is more likely to raise interest rates in the face of a strong and growing economy. The combination of these effects can have a large impact on the demand for the nation’s currency.

BoE Minutes Description
The Bank of England (BOE) Meeting Minutes are a verbatim record of the bank’s meeting held about two weeks earlier. The minutes give traders insight into the latest interest rate decision and policy shifts.

Canada Retail Sales (Core)

Pair: USD/CAD
Result: No Trade

Prior: -0.7%
Expected: 0.5%
Actual: 0.1%

Again I set a wide deviation and got another no-trade. These Canada trades don’t hit too often or move the market a great deal.

Description
Derivative of Retail Sales that excludes the Automobile Sales component. Automobile Sales make up roughly 25% of Retail Sales, but they can be very volatile from month to month and can distort the picture. Retail Sales with the exclusion of this volatile component is thought to be a better indicator of the underlying trend in consumer spending.

Canada CPI

Pair: USD/CAD
Result: No Trade

Prior: 0.3%
Expected: 0%
Actual: -0.2%

I set my deviation to 0.3 as I wanted a fairly strong number to get me in. Glad I did as 0.2 didn’t really move the market enough on the spike. No trade.

Description
Derivative of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that excludes the eight most volatile items, including fruit, fruit preparations and nuts, vegetables and vegetable preparations, mortgage interest costs, natural gas, fuel oil and other fuel, gasoline, inter-city transportation, and tobacco products and smokers’ supplies. CPI with the exclusion of these volatile components is thought to be a better indicator of the underlying inflation trend and the central bank uses it as their primary inflation gauge, aiming to keep it at an annualized rate of 2%.

UK Retail Sales

Pair: GBP/USD
Result: Buy
Profit: 19 pips

Prior: 0.3%
Expected:0.5%
Actual: 1.1%

A big deviation should have sent the pound over 30-40 pips but it only moved 25 or so and then retraced and went down. Strange behaviour. Managed to get 19 pips.

Description
Measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency because Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders pay close attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior and is susceptible to surprises.

NZ Retail Sales

Pair: NZD/USD
Result: Weak Sell
Profit: 11 pips

Prior: 0.3%
Expected: -0.1%
Actual: -0.2%

A very small deviation triggered a risky sell signal. Still using my FXCM demo got in at 0.6959 and out at 0.6948 as price started retracing. Stayed in the trade for about 30 seconds.

Description
Measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency because Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders pay close attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior and is susceptible to surprises.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

Pair: GBP/USD
Result: No Trade

Prior: -4.3
Expected: 3.0
Actual: 8.3

Not expecting this one to move, set my deviation quite wide and it didn’t get hit, therefore a no trade.

Description
Measures the general business conditions of manufacturers in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. The index is derived from a survey that asks respondents to rate the level of general business activity as ‘decrease’, ‘increase’, or ‘no change’. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency because good manufacturing conditions are a sign of a strong economy. Although this survey is limited to manufacturers in Philadelphia only, traders pay close attention because the Philadelphia Federal Reserve releases it weeks before other major reports on manufacturing (e.g., Industrial Production, ISM Manufacturing Index).

USA CPI (exc. Food and energy)

Pair: GBP/USD
Result: No Trade

Prior: 0%
Expected: 0.2%
Actual: 0.2%

No deviation at all so a no trade. US Housing Starts was released at the same time as CPI which was better than expected and strengthened the dollar slightly. Housing starts only moved it 20 pips or so. The trend is down so I waited for a 50% retracement and went short on a limit order at 1.9658. Shortly after I placed my order, the market rallied and took out my stop.

Description
Derivative of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that excludes the Food and Energy items. Food and Energy account for roughly 25% of CPI, but they can be very volatile from month to month and can distort the overall picture. CPI with the exclusion of these volatile components is thought to be a better indicator of the underlying inflation trend.

USA Industrial Production

Pair: GBP/USD
Result: Sell, then Abort
Profit: -3 ticks

Prior: 0.2%
Expected: 0.1%
Actual: 0.4%

Nice deviation on this one, however the previous month’s number was revised a couple of seconds once in the trade against the direction of the trade. With this trade I tried my futures platform and sold the british pound (6B) to see how the slippage was. I got filled within 1 tick of the open of the bar. Very nice. Open price of the bar was 1.9658 and I was filled on my sell_market order at 1.9657.

Futures platform

On the abort signal I exited and lost 3 ticks. Great abort call as the pound rallied up shortly after.

Description
Measures the total value of output produced by factories, mines, and utilities. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency because high levels of production are a sign of a strong economy. Industrial Production reacts quickly to the ups and downs of the business cycle and can be a leading indicator of manufacturing employment, average earnings, and personal income. Traders pay special attention to Industrial Production because it’s one of the few growth indicators that is produced directly by the Federal Reserve.

US Net Foreign Securities (TIC report)

Pair: GBP/USD
Result: No Trade

Prior: 82.3B
Expected: 82.5B
Actual: 68.4B

No trigger for me my deviation was set at 50B and 100B. No trade. I usually post up 5min charts, but the one below is a 1min chart as the 5min was looking a bit congested.

Description
The Treasury International Capital (TIC) Report measures foreign demand for US debt and assets. Strong demand tends to strengthen the dollar as foreigners convert their money in order to purchase US securities.

USA PPI (Core)

Pair: GBP/USD
Result: No Trade

Prior: 1.3%
Expected: 0.1%
Actual: 0.2%

My deviation was set to 0.5% and therefore didn’t trigger the trade. Very small deviation to the short side strengthened the US Dollar slightly before the pound uptrend resumed again. I was very tempted to buy the pound at the bottom of the spike as I ws 99% sure it would retrace and resume. I didn’t because I haven’t got statistics on this – perhaps a project for another day – buying retracements of news events.

Description
Derivative of the Producer Price Index (PPI) that excludes the Food and Energy items. Although Food and Energy can be very volatile from month to month, they play an important role in pass-through inflation. Therefore Core PPI usually has less impact than the overall PPI.

UK Unemployment Count

Pair: GBP/USD
Result: No Trade

Prior: -5.7K
Expected: -5.0K
Actual: -5.5K

So the number came out slightly better than expected but slightly worse than last month. I would have expected the pound to rally gently on this release but it did the opposite. Could someone explain that to me in the comments section? I don’t get that. The pound was in a nice uptrend before the report too. Perhaps because the number was worse than last month sent it down slightly. I decided to place an order to buy at the bottom of the spike, because I’m convinced this will come back up and continue the trend. Let’s see…

Description
Measures the change in the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits over the previous month. A falling trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Working people tend to spend more, and consumer spending is a major driver of the economy.

NZ CPI

Pair: NZD/USD
Result: No Trade
Oanda spread: no idea

Prior: 0.7%
Expected: -0.1%
Actual: -0.2%

This was a big surprise. I don’t have any history for this trade so it was interesting to see that the NZD weakened significantly by about 50 pips on a very small deviation of 0.1%. I set my deviation to 0.2% so it was a no trade for me. Next time will use a smaller deviation to trigger the trade.

Description
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the rate of inflation (i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by consumers when purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising interest rates to bring prices down. Higher interest rates attract foreign investment, thus increasing demand for the nation’s currency. CPI is one of the most closely watched indicators and will usually have a high impact upon release.

Canada Interest Rates

Pair: USD/CAD
Result: No Trade
Oanda spread: 8 pips

Prior: 4.25
Expected: 4.25
Actual: 4.25

No interest rate change, no trade. Market reacted favourably after a few minutes as the CAD strengthed slightly.

Description
Canada’s central bank, the Bank of Canada (BOC), releases an Interest Rate Statement eight times per year. The statement contains the latest decision regarding changes to the nation’s short term interest rate (“overnight rate”), a brief report of the economic conditions that effected their decision, and most importantly, clues on what the next rate decision will be. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation; traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how interest rates may change in the future. What makes interest rates so important is that high rates attract foreigners looking for the best “risk-free” return on their money, which significantly increases demand for the nation’s currency. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising interest rates in an attempt to bring prices down. This is what makes inflation-predicting indicators so important. Traders know that rising prices will lead the central bank to raise interest rates, which ultimately leads to a more valuable currency.

US Empire State Business Conditions Index

Pair: GBP/USD
Result: Buy
Oanda Spread: 7 pips (demo)
Peak spike: 17 pips

Prior: 23.13
Expected: 19.5
Actual: 9.13

Not traded this one before. Got a buy signal and was filled on fxcm’s demo account at 1.9651 got out at 1.9653 when price started coming down. Not a good trade this one, needs more deviation to move it. Will adjust my deviations next time.

Description
Measures the general business conditions of manufacturers in New York State. The index is derived from a survey that asks respondents to rate the level of general business activity as ‘decrease’, ‘increase’, or ‘no change’. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency because good manufacturing conditions are a sign of a strong economy. Although this survey is limited to manufacturers in New York only, traders pay close attention because the New York Federal Reserve releases it weeks before other major reports on manufacturing (e.g., Industrial Production, ISM Manufacturing Index).

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

Pair: EUR/USD
Result: No Trade

Prior: -19
Expected: -10
Actual: -3.6

Not enough deviation for a trade. I wasn’t expecting anything for this release, however you never know as UK interest rates showed us.

Description
Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) Economic Sentiment measures institutional investor sentiment. The monthly indicator reflects the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of investors that are pessimistic. For example, if 30% of participants expect the economic situation to improve within the next six months, 30% expect no change and 40% expect the economic situation to deteriorate, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment would take a value of -10. Thus, a positive number means that the share of optimists outweighs the share of pessimists.

UK CPI

Pair: GBP/USD
Result: Buy
Oanda Spread: 20 pips
Peak spike: 25 pips

Prior: 0.3%
Expected: 0.4%
Actual: 0.6%

This was unusual. The deviation was good and price spiked 25 pips within seconds and then retraced very quickly to break even, then sold off a minute or two later. Perhaps it has something to do with BoE being required to write an explanatory letter to government if CPI rises to 3%. See http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6266263.stm. If you know please let me know via the comments below, thanks.

If you were quick then you could have got 10 or so pips out of this one, if not then break-even or a small loss of a few pips.

Description
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the rate of inflation (i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by consumers when purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising interest rates to bring prices down. Higher interest rates attract foreign investment, thus increasing demand for the nation’s currency. CPI is one of the most closely watched indicators and will usually have a high impact upon release.

UK PPI

Pair: GBP/USD
Result: No Trade
Spread: 20 pips

Prior: 0.1%
Expected: 0.2%
Actual: 0.1%

Very quiet market. The pound is still trending up on the interest rate news and its a holiday in US. The market didn’t react at all to this announcement. No trade.

Description
The Producer Price Index (PPI) Input measures the rate of inflation (i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by manufacturers when purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. When manufactures pay more for goods and services, they are likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so PPI is thought to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation. PPI is highly regarded, and at extremes will have a market impact equal to that of its CPI counterpart.

USA Core Retail Sales

Pair: GBP/USD
Result: Sell, then Abort
Spread: 20 pips
Peak spike: 38 pips

Prior: 1.1%
Expected: 0.5%
Actual: 1.0%

I set my bounds to 10 in Oanda which will keep me out of trades that are 10 pips outside of my order price. This time, the bounds kept me out of the trade which means it kept me out of some nasty Oanda slippage. A few seconds later I got an abort trade signal because the prior figures had been revised in the opposite direction. At the end of the 5 minute candle price had closed above the open and the market continued up instead of down, so that was a great signal. A lot of people made money on this trade when they got out at the abort signal.

Overall a very tricky trade to make money on, and I’m glad I didn’t get into it with Oanda. I’m still looking for another broker, if you know of a good one for news traders please let me know.

Description
Derivative of Retail Sales that excludes the Automobile Sales component. Automobile Sales make up roughly 25% of Retail Sales, but they can be very volatile from month to month and can distort the picture. Retail Sales with the exclusion of this volatile component is thought to be a better indicator of the underlying trend in consumer spending.

ECB Interest Rate Statement

Pair: EUR/USD
Result: No Trade
Spread: didn’t see

Prior: 3.5%
Expected: 3.5%
Actual: 3.5%

No move on european interest rates meaning a no-trade. Its interesting to note in the chart that the UK interest rates statement strengthened the euro against the dollar.

Description
The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council releases an Interest Rate Statement each month. The statement contains the latest decision regarding changes to the euro area’s short term interest rate (“minimum bid rate”). A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation; traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how interest rates may change in the future. What makes interest rates so important is that high rates attract foreigners looking for the best “risk-free” return on their money, which significantly increases demand for the nation’s currency. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising interest rates in an attempt to bring prices down. This is what makes inflation-predicting indicators so important. Traders know that rising prices will lead the central bank to raise interest rates, which ultimately leads to a more valuable currency.

UK Interest Rate Statement

Pair: GBP/USD
Result: Buy
Spread: 25 pips
Peak spike: 131 pips

Prior: 5%
Expected: 5%
Actual: 5.25%

Well, this was a big surprise. Not many people expected the Bank of England to raise interest rates until next month. Beautiful trade if you got that one. I made a mistake in my software and missed it – won’t make that mistake again, cost me over 100 pips. Oh well, I’m still new to this game.

Description
The central bank’s governing body, the Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee, releases an Interest Rate Statement each month. The statement contains the latest decision regarding changes to the nation’s short term interest rate (“Bank rate”). A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation; traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how interest rates may change in the future. What makes interest rates so important is that high rates attract foreigners looking for the best “risk-free” return on their money, which significantly increases demand for the nation’s currency. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising interest rates in an attempt to bring prices down. This is what makes inflation-predicting indicators so important. Traders know that rising prices will lead the central bank to raise interest rates, which ultimately leads to a more valuable currency.

UK Industrial Production

Pair: GBP/USD
Result: No trade
Spread: 25 pips

Prior: -0.8
Expected: 0.3
Actual: 0.5

Slightly better than expected but not enough for a safe trade. Even if I had got a trigger, I would have stayed out due to the wild oanda spread. The pound may drift up after this report, who knows? Let’s see.

I am now seriously looking for another broker. Oanda froze on me for the first time today also. Not only are the spreads ridiculous, they are slipping people, and now their platform is unreliable. I know of a lot of people closing their accounts with them right now.

Description

Measures the total value of output produced by factories, mines, and utilities. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency because high levels of production are a sign of a strong economy. Industrial Production reacts quickly to the ups and downs of the business cycle and can be a leading indicator of manufacturing employment, average earnings, and personal income. Traders pay special attention to Industrial Production because it’s one of the few growth indicators that is produced directly by the Federal Reserve.

USA Trade Balance

Pair: GBP/USD
Result: No trade
Spread: 20 pips

Prior: -58.87
Expected: -60
Actual: -58.2

The number was slightly better than expected but not really enough to move the market on a spike. Spread went to 20 pips again on Oanda, so a no-trade for me. Not many people took this trade.

Description
Measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services. A positive Trade Balance indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported over a given period. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. When higher levels of exports are sold to the world, demand for the nation’s currency is elevated as foreigners convert their native currency to purchase the exports. The Trade Balance also has a sizable impact on GDP because high demand for exports creates increased employment and production, as domestic factories work to fill this demand.

UK Trade Balance

Pair: GBP/USD
Result: Sell
Spread: 20 pips
Spike peak: 18 pips

Prior: -6326
Expected: -6450
Actual: -7200

When i saw the Oanda spread at 20, I stayed out of the trade as this one is usually not a big mover. I was right – many people made a loss on this one due to slippage and spread. I will be looking for another broker soon as Oanda are clearly losing too much money to news traders. There was a decent deviation so I would have expected the market to move more than it did.

Description
Measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services. A positive Trade Balance indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported over a given period. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. When higher levels of exports are sold to the world, demand for the nation’s currency is elevated as foreigners convert their native currency to purchase the exports. The Trade Balance also has a sizable impact on GDP because high demand for exports creates increased employment and production, as domestic factories work to fill this demand.

Australia Trade Balance

Pair: AUD/USD
Result: No Trade
Spread: 20 pips

Prior: -1263
Expected: -750
Actual: -843

This one rarely hits, not much deviation, another aussie no-trade. Oanda are still trying to shake out their news traders with another 20 pip spread. Even if the number had deviated enough, I wouldn’t have traded this anyway as the spread was too high.

Description
Measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services. A positive Trade Balance indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported over a given period. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. When higher levels of exports are sold to the world, demand for the nation’s currency is elevated as foreigners convert their native currency to purchase the exports. The Trade Balance also has a sizable impact on GDP because high demand for exports creates increased employment and production, as domestic factories work to fill this demand.

Australia Retail Sales

Pair: AUD/USD
Result: No Trade
Spread: 2 pips

Prior: 0.8%
Expected: 0.3%
Actual: 0.2%

Not much deviation – not enough for a trade. Market didn’t react much to the news.

Description
Measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency because Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders pay close attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior and is susceptible to surprises.

US Non-Farm Payroll

Pair: GBP/USD
Bias: Short
Result: Sell
Spread: 20 pips!
Profit: Did not trade
Peak spike move: 85 pips

This NFP report happened to be a beauty. It was in agreement with the overall trend down and the revision was also down – so lots of selling pressure on the pound. I stayed out of this trade due to slippage with Oanda recently. A very nice trade and most people got decent fills with Oanda around the 1.9390 mark. Price continued over the next couple of hours to drop a further 50 pips. A very nice trade indeed if you got it with a good fill.

US Non-Farm Payroll Screenshot

Forex25 Comments
This is a very dangerous trade. DO NOT over trade your account on this report.

Description
Measures the number of new jobs created in the previous month, excluding the farming industry. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. The number of new jobs being created is one of the most important indicators of the economy’s health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates to labor conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises.

Canada Employment Figures

Pair: USD/CAD
Bias: Short
Result: Sell
Spread: 8 pips
Profit: Did not trade
Peak spike move: 35 pips

Everyone in the room got slipped again by 22 pips. Another news service I’m looking at had a mixed result with some members getting slipped 22 pips and some getting in at the top of the spike at 1.1779 with Oanda. I decided to stay out until the Oanda fill problems resolve themselves. I’m glad I did.

Click for screenshot

Forex25 Comments
If the number hits Ok it will be Pretty safe

Description
Measures the number of new jobs created in the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. The number of new jobs being created is one of the most important indicators of the economy’s health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates to labor conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises.