USA Chicago PMI

Pair: GBP/USD
Bias: Long
Result: No Trade
Spread: 10 pips

Not expecting a trade with this release. Not much of a deviation, market didn’t respond much as a spike. No trade.

Forex25 Comments
Has only ever gone 30

Description
The National Association of Purchasing Managers (NAPM) Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) measures the health of the Chicago business environment. It’s derived from a monthly survey of purchasing managers where respondents indicate whether their organization’s activity is higher than, the same as, or lower than the previous month for output, purchases, employment, inventories, orders, and prices. An index reading above 50 indicates sector expansion.

Canada GDP

Pair: USD/CAD
Bias: Flat
Result: Buy
Spread: 10 pips
Profit: 20 pips
Peak move: 34 pips

Got a great fill on this trade at 1.1403 about 3-4 secs before the market moved at all. Great news call and very fast execution from oanda gave me a great trade. Moved stop to 1.1423 when price starting moving down to lock in 20 pips.

Forex25 comments
Don’t trade above 10 pips spread

Description
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of all goods and services produced by the economy. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity and considered to be the primary gauge of an economy’s health. To foreign investors, a strong economy is viewed favorably because it spurs investment opportunities in the domestic stock and bond markets. A strong economy also persuades the central bank to raise interest rates in an attempt to control growth. All of this activity will increase demand for the nation’s currency.

Australia Retail Sales

Pair: AUD/USD
Bias: Slightly short
Result: No Trade
Spread: 10 pips

The most promising aus trade this week, didn’t deviate much from the forecasts so another no trade.

Forex25 comments
A good solid trade if the numbers hit

USA New Home Sales

Pair: GBP/USD
Bias: Long
Result: No Trade
Spread: 10 pips

Was expecting a good trade for this one as a lot of people were talking of poor house sales in the US. Deviation wasn’t much from forecasts making it a no trade again.

Forex25 Comments
Dont trade above 10 pips spread. We may see some wild deviations this time due to the USA housing slowdown.

Description
Measures the monthly change in the number of newly constructed homes sold in the previous month.

USA Preliminary GDP

Pair: GBP/USD
Bias: Flat
Result: No Trade
Spread: 10 pips

A small report this one which historically hasn’t moved price much. Didn’t expect anything from it.

Forex25 comments
No history as it never hits.

Description
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of all goods and services produced by the economy. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity and considered to be the primary gauge of an economy’s health. To foreign investors, a strong economy is viewed favorably because it spurs investment opportunities in the domestic stock and bond markets. A strong economy also persuades the central bank to raise interest rates in an attempt to control growth. All of this activity will increase demand for the nation’s currency.

Australian Trade Balance

Pair: AUD/USD
Bias: Short
Result: No Trade
Spread: 10 pips

Not a lot of movement, figure came out a few seconds late. No spike to speak of, next trade please…

Forex25 Comments
Not the best Australian trade. Needs a good deviation to make it safe which means it hits less often. Should go 25 to 30 on the spike if it hits and then we’ll hold as usual to catch the drift.

Description
Measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services. A positive Trade Balance indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. As higher levels of exports are sold to the world, demand for the nation’s currency is elevated as foreigners convert their native currency to purchase these exports. The Trade Balance also has a sizable impact on GDP because high demand for exports creates increased employment and production as domestic factories work to fill this foreign demand.

USA Consumer Confidence and Existing Home Sales

Pair: GBP/USD
Bias: Flat
Result: No Trade
Spread: 5 pips

One report came out slightly positive and the other slightly negative resulting in a no trade.

Forex25 comments
It’s less likely to trade with two very different numbers released. If it does go then they will both be in agreement and it will be a relatively safe trade.

Consumer confidence
Measures the mood of consumers in regard to economic conditions. The reading is derived from a monthly survey that asks respondents to evaluate the prospects for the economy in the future. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism. When consumers are optimistic they tend to purchase more goods and services, which stimulates the economy.

Existing home sales
Measures the annualized number of existing homes sold in the previous month. Existing Home Sales make up a larger portion of the housing market than New Home Sales, and therefore are an important indicator of trends in the housing market.

USA Durable Goods

Pair: GBP/USD
Bias: Long
Result: No Trade
Spread: 10 pip

Forex25 Comments
Only really good for around 30 pips. If you get a fast fill and the spread is below 10 then all should be reasonable. Outside of this will increase the risk.

Description
Durable Goods measures the value of new purchase orders placed with domestic manufacturers for hard goods with a life expectancy of more than 3 years, such as automobiles, computers, appliances, and airplanes. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. While most indicators tell what happened in the past, Durable Goods Orders paints a picture of the future. It uncovers how busy manufacturers will be in the months to come as they work to fill new orders, and a busy manufacturing industry is a positive sign that the economy is expanding.

UK GDP

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of all goods and services produced by the economy. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity and considered to be the primary gauge of an economy’s health. To foreign investors, a strong economy is viewed favorably because it spurs investment opportunities in the domestic stock and bond markets. A strong economy also persuades the central bank to raise interest rates in an attempt to control growth. All of this activity will increase demand for the nation’s currency.

Pair: GBP/USD
Bias: Flat
Result: No Trade
Max Spread (oanda): 7.5pips

The pound had moved over 150 pips one hour prior to this release, so we were wary about what to do. There was no deviation from forecasts, so this was a no-trade. The prior move may have been due to european interest rates warning, some comments from a chinese minister about the strength of the dollar or the bombings in Baghdad – the worst yet since fall of saddam. Who knows?

NZ Trade Balance

I wasn’t around for this one as I was out with my wife, I’ve included it here for completeness.

Pair: NZD/USD
Bias: Long
Result: No trade

Forex25 Comments

If the number hit it will go at least 30. I will not be looking to hold but just TP. OK as usual with these NZD reports we need to draw a horizontal line on price and 20 pips below and above so we can see any early spikes due to late numbers.

Canada CPI

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the rate of inflation (i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by consumers when purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising interest rates to bring prices down. Higher interest rates attract foreign investment, thus increasing demand for the nation’s currency. CPI is one of the most closely watched indicators and will usually have a high impact upon release.

Pair: USD/CAD
Bias: Slightly long
Result: No Trade
Max Spread (oanda): 10pips

The figures came out on time and the market spiked down slightly and then retraced almost immediately. Not much deviation from forecasts meant this one didn’t move much.

Forex25 Comments
Hardly ever hits. If it does it will be good for 20 on the spike and maybe more on the ripple/hold.

Canada Retail Sales

Measures the total value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Consumer spending makes up a large portion of GDP, and Retail Sales makes up one-third of consumer spending. This indicator is usually the first of the month that relates to consumer behavior, making it susceptible to big surprises.

Pair: USD/CAD
Bias: Slightly long
Result: No Trade
Max Spread (oanda): 10pips

The figures came out on time and the market moved more than expected, although only by 20 pips on the spike, not really a tradeable release. We expect this one to be a no trade most of the time.

Forex25 Comments
The risk is high because historically this never trades due to accurate estimates. Therefore there is limited history on deviations.

Back online

I’ve managed to organise my day so that I can post these trades up. I hope you find them useful.